Military defence has several different meanings dependent on what criteria you apply the reference to. The term can be used in an individual sense in respect of a single soldier and what methods the individual soldier takes to defend himself such as; wearing protective equipment, utilising armaments or constructing protection such as a digging a trench or a foxhole.

Defence is also a term used when describing a military unit’s defensive tactics when working against an opposing forces offensive, perhaps by seeking to circumnavigate the enemy position, delay an enemy attack, or to wage a war of attrition whereby the enemy will lose numbers eventually allowing the defensive force to form a defensive line or perform an offensive manoeuvre.

An excellent example of employing defensive strategy tactics can be seen when used against American soldiers in the Vietnam Conflict. The Vietcong employed both regular army units and guerrilla units in order to fight an offensive and defensive strategy. By the use of smaller mobile guerrilla forces the Vietcong waged a war on the resources of the American soldiers, which included destroying supplies and supply routes. They also used the Americans resources when producing booby traps, including discarded items such as tin cans as well as unexploded bombs which they would collect and use for mines.

Eventually the efforts of the smaller mobile defensive guerrillas caused such an effect that the main army was able to overrun the American forces with a massive attack know as the Tet Offensive.

Defensive military strategy is also hugely apparent in the arms race, and more recently the nuclear arms race. The opinion being that with a nation holding such powerful weapons it would be inadvisable to attack unless of course the offensive nation holds weapons of a similar nature.

Nowhere is this example more outlined than in the Cold War stand offs of the mid to late twentieth century. One specific example of this is the Cuban Missile Crisis which involved the US and the Soviet Union in 1962. The Soviet and Cuban authorities had placed nuclear weapons on Cuba as seen by American reconnaissance planes and, with the tension between the two countries already palpable, a standoff ensued with the ‘very real’ threat of a nuclear war occurring. Fortunately diplomatic proceedings ensured that the crisis was settled relatively amicably with the dismantling of the weaponry and a no-invasion agreement in place from the American authorities.

The news stories from Pakistan have been bad across the board for quite some time now. Recent days have seen the TTP-led forces within 70 km of Islamabad, “peace” deals in Swat and a rising tide of attacks on major cities. However, all is not lost for the Pakistan Army. In fact, all was never lost; it has been a carefully planned strategic move on the part of General Kayani.

Pakistan Army offensives have thus far been successful, and are likely to cut off Swat from TTP reinforcements from the South. Bajaur-Malakand-Buner axis would leave the Pakistani Taliban in Swat dissected from their friends in Mohmand Agency. The Swat Valley has very few exits and is accessible mainly from the South and North, with limited access to Shangla to the East and Dir to the West. All of which can theoretically be closed by the Pakistan Army.

The TTP have underestimated the Pakistan Army and overestimated their position and moved towards more conventional ground holding operations over classic guerrilla too quickly. They are likely to pay the price in blood, and complete loss of their northern flank. The only silver lining for the TTP will be the use of massive American weaponry including borrowed choppers that are likely to be used in such an operation. This would equate the Pakistan Army=stooges of America.

The Pakistani game plan has been masterminded by General Kayani, who is now emerging as a seasoned chess-player and a veritable Pakistani Putin. He has deftly fixed the political crisis without directly interfering in the affairs of the state. “The Kayani Model”, a term coined by former Chief of Army Staff Jehangir Karamat, represents a new framework for the Pakistan Army. As Karamat puts it, – “invisible but around, fully informed and acting through well timed and effective influence”.

In a parallel development, a new consensus appears to be emerging, that can be called the “Zaid Hamid Consensus” that charts out a broad policy of independence from the US and an Islamic state in the philosophical lineage of Allama Iqbal rather than a Taliban/Salafi style interpretation. This consensus, if it can gain critical mass, could prove to be an antidote to both foreign designs against the country as well as the internal threat of the Salafists and terrorists.

The Americans are also in the game. The American game plan is represented by a rehash of the “Sunni Awakening” strategy in Iraq under the brand name of “Sunni Tahreek” a so-called Deobandi outfit. This is perhaps the biggest danger for Pakistan, as it will in the long-term move the battle from far flung and remote areas to the city centers of the country in a rehash of Iraq post US conquest, with the violence, militias and terror that it accompanied. With the political government’s cooperation and US funding, this could easily turn very nasty.